As we move into the future, one of the most likely candidates for the next Black Swan event is a cyber-physical event. This refers to a disruption caused by a cyberattack on critical infrastructure, such as the electrical grid, transportation systems, or financial systems. (common emphasis on hybrid systems of interacting digital, analog, physical, and human components in systems).
The increasing reliance on technology and the interconnectedness of systems make them vulnerable to cyberattacks. If a critical infrastructure is compromised, it can have a widespread impact on society, potentially causing widespread damage, disrupting economies, and affecting millions of people.
For example, a cyberattack on the electrical grid could cause widespread power outages, potentially leading to a cascading failure of other critical infrastructure. Similarly, a cyberattack on transportation systems could cause widespread disruptions, with trains and airplanes unable to function, leading to major economic and social consequences.
I have touched on the subject of major disruptions in the cyberattack sector recently. In my recent blog posting “Averting The Crisis” I spoke of the need to focus on how the massive increase in remote access to networks opens up organizations to an increase in cybe attacks. Following that I wrote “When It Rains It Floods” where I looked at multiple ransomware attacks on academic institutions, all within days of each other. Following that I wrote “The Third Largest Economy” where I reference a study presented at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, stating that if cybersecurity attack revenue was a country, it would be the world’s third largest economy. Despite all of this, we still have not witnessed a cybersecurity related Black Swan event.
The COVID-19 pandemic has shown us the importance of preparedness for unexpected events. Many countries were caught off guard by the sudden spread of the virus, and the resulting shortage of personal protective equipment and hospital beds showed the need for better planning and preparation.
To prepare for a potential cyber-physical event, it is essential to have robust cyber security measures in place, to train and educate people on how to respond in the event of a cyberattack, and to invest in resilience. This means investing in technology and infrastructure, developing contingency plans, and preparing for the worst-case scenarios.
In conclusion, while the next Black Swan event is impossible to predict, the potential impact of a cyber-physical event is significant and cannot be ignored. By being proactive, investing in resilience, and having contingency plans in place, we can minimize the impact of such events and ensure that we are better prepared for the future. However, the question remains, will we pick up the pace now, or simply react as needed?
I’m not really a betting man, but you can guess what I would bet on.